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♤ A 4x4 Assessment’ addresses the impact of climate change in 2030s to the natural resources and livelihoods of the people in the four climate sensitive regions of Himalayan region, North-East region, the Western Ghats and the Coastal plains for the 4 key sectors of Agriculture, Water, Health and Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity.
♤ The 4 region, 4 sectors Assessment in short has been referred to as a 4x4 Assessment.
♤ The assessment examines the implications of the climate change scenario in 2030s using a regional climate model (PRECIS).
♤ The assessment also brings out the future areas of work to enhance the knowledge and areas of further improvement in the future assessments.
♤ 4 Regions: Western Ghats, Himalayan Region, Coastal India, North-East
♤ 4 Thrust Areas: Agriculture, Water, Forests, Human Health
Impacts
♤ Warmer seasons: Avg. temp rise: 2.0 deg C predicted. 1.0-4.0 deg C at extreme ranges
♤ Increased annual precipitation with lower frequency of rainy days; increased intensity
♤ Cyclonic disturbances of lower frequency; increased intensity and increased risk of storm surges
♤ Sea-level rise: 1.3mm/year on average
Agriculture
♤ Up to 50% reduction in maize yields
♤ 4-35% reduction in rice yields (with some exceptions)
♤ Rise in coconut yields (with some exceptions); reduced apple production
♤ Negative impacts on livestock in all regions
♤ Fresh water supply
♤ High variability predicted in water yields (from 50% increase to 40-50% reduction)
♤ 10-30% increased risk of floods; increased risks of droughts
Forests and natural ecosystems
♤ Increased net primary productivity
♤ Shifting forest borders; species mix; negative impact on livelihoods and biodiversity
Human health
♤ Higher morbidity and mortality from heat stress and vector/water-borne diseases
♤ Expanded transmission window for malaria
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Article 21 conferring the Right of Life has been assigned the broadest interpretations by the judiciary to encompass the right to a clean environment, right to livelihood, right to live with dignity and a number of other associated rights.