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20.1.1. Impacts on Indian agriculture


A large part of the arable land in India is rain-fed, the productivity of agriculture depends on the rainfall and its pattern.

Agriculture will be adversely affected not only by an increase or decrease in the overall amounts of rainfall but also by shifts in the timing of the rainfall.

Any change in rainfall patterns poses a serious threat to agriculture, and therefore to the economy and food security.

Summer rainfall accounts for almost 70 per cent of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture.

However, studies predict decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s.


Semi arid regions of western India are expected to receive higher than normal rainfall as temperatures soar, while central India will experience a decrease of between 10 and 20 per cent in winter rainfall by the 2050s.

Relatively small climate changes can cause large water resources problems particularly in arid and semi arid regions such as northwest India.

Productivity of most crops may decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability, especially in Indo-Gangetic plains.

This apart, there would be a decline in the productivity of rabi as compared to kharif season crops.


Rising temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets and result in higher GHG emissions, ammonia volatilization and cost of crop production.

Increased frequencies of droughts, floods, storms and cyclones are likely to increase agricultural production variability.

Do you know?


The sloth bear, also known as the labiated bear, is a nocturnal insectivorous species of bear found wild within the Indian subcontinent. They feed on termites, honeybee colonies and fruits