10. Trends in International Migration

Overall, between 1950 and 2015, the major areas of Europe, Northern America and Oceania have been net receivers of international migrants, while Africa, Asia and Latin and the Caribbean have been net senders, with the volume of net migration generally increasing over time.

When countries are grouped by income rather than geography, the attraction of high-income countries is even more evident: from 2000 to 2015, high-income countries received an average of 4.1 million net migrants annually from lower- and middle-income countries. As per UN World population Prospects 2015, Economic and demographic asymmetries across countries are likely to remain powerful generators of international migration within the medium-term future. Large-scale refugee movements have also had a profound influence on the level of net migration experienced by some countries, including those affected recently by the Syrian crisis.

In the future, net migration is projected to be a major contributor to population growth in many high-income countries. Between 2015 and 2050, total births in the group of high-income countries are projected to exceed deaths by 20 million, while the net gain in migrants is projected to be 91 million. Thus, net migration is projected to account for 82 per cent of population growth in the high-income countries.

The movement of people from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, Northern America and Oceania has dominated the world migration patterns for almost half a century, but flows among developing countries have also been important. Several high-income and middle-income countries in the “global south” have also been attracting migrants in large numbers for several years.

Between 2015 and 2050, the top net receivers of international migrants (more than 100,000 annually) are projected to be the United States of America, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, the Russian Federation and Italy. The countries projected to have net emigration of more than 100,000 annually include India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan and Mexico.

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: MIGRATION TRENDS 2016

♤ The number of refugees worldwide will rise to yet new historic levels-Syrian crisis will be compounded by new displacement from Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Libya and Yemen

♤ The potential for migration to contribute to poverty reduction has been acknowledged in the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

♤ Over the last 20 years the number of women among migrants has increased worldwide, as the global demand for labour has become focused on domestic work, services, hospitality, and sex. A growing proportion of these women will migrate independently and as breadwinners for their families. A growing proportion will also be trafficked, and suffer human rights abuses.

♤ The global war for talent will intensify. Continued retrenchment in Europe will place even greater emphasis on employing the best and brightest, but Europe will face growing completion from new skills magnets like Brazil and China. Expect ageing, conservative, and increasingly xenophobic Europe to lose out in this competition.

In countries or areas where fertility is already below the replacement level, the total population is expected to contract unless the excess of deaths over births is counterbalanced by a gain due to net migration. However, international migration at, or around, current levels will be unable to compensate fully for the expected loss of population due to low levels of fertility.