How can we identify the trend?

The growth rate of population in India over the last one century has been caused by annual birth rate and death rate and rate of migration and thereby shows different trends. There are four distinct phases of growth identified within this period:

Phase I: The period from 1901-1921 is referred to as a period of stagnant or stationary phase of growth of India’s population, since in this period growth rate was very low, even recording a negative growth rate during 1911-1921. Both the birth rate and death rate were high keeping the rate of increase low. Poor health and medical services, illiteracy of people at large and inefficient distribution system of food and other basic necessities were largely responsible for a high birth and death rates in this period.

Phase II: The decades 1921-1951 are referred to as the period of steady population growth. An overall improvement in health and sanitation throughout the country brought down the mortality rate. At the same time better transport and communication system improved distribution system. The crude birth rate remained high in this period leading to higher growth rate than the previous phase. This is impressive at the backdrop of Great Economic Depression, 1920s and World War II.

Phase III: The decades 1951-1981 are referred to as the period of population explosion in India, which was caused by a rapid fall in the mortality rate but a high fertility rate of population in the country. The average annual growth rate was as high as 2.2 percent. It is in this period, after the Independence, that developmental activities were introduced through a centralised planning process and economy started showing up ensuring the improvement of living condition of

people at large. Consequently, there was a high natural increase and higher growth rate. Besides, increased international migration from neighbouring countries contributed to the high growth rate.

Phase IV: In the post 1981 till present, the growth rate of country’s population though remained high, has started slowing down gradually. A downward trend of crude birthrate is held responsible for such a population growth. This was, in turn, affected by an increase in theme an age at marriage, improved quality of life particularly education of females in the country. The growth rate of population is, however, still high in the country, and it has been projected by World Development Report that population of India will touch 1,350 million by 2025.

The analysis done so far shows the average growth rate, but the country also has wide variation in growth rates from one area to another which is discussed below. Refer to Fig S4 and S5.