(For more on Migration refer the material on migration)

4.4. Trends in Population Growth

4.4.1. Projected growth in the world population

Currently, the world population is growing slowly than in the recent past. Ten years ago, world population was growing by 1.24 per cent per year. Today, it is growing by 1.18 per cent per year, or approximately an additional 83 million people annually. The world population is projected to increase by more than one billion people within the next 15 years, reaching 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

♤ Africa is the fastest-growing major area: More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas, growing at a pace of 2.55 per cent annually in 2010- 2015. Consequently, of the additional 2.4 billion people projected to be added to the global population between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa. Asia is projected to be the second largest contributor to future global population growth, adding 0.9 billion people between 2015 and 2050, followed by Northern America, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, which are projected to have much smaller increments. In the medium variant, Europe is projected to have a smaller population in 2050 than in 2015. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future.

♤ High Population growth in least developed countries (LDCs)-High population growth will remain the feature of a group of 48 countries designated by the United Nations as the least developed countries (LDCs), of which 27 are in Africa. Although the growth rate of the LDCs is projected to slow from its current 2.4 per cent annually. Between 2015 and 2100, the populations of 33 countries, most of them LDCs, have a high probability of at least tripling. Among them, the populations of Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia are projected to increase at least five-fold by 2100.

♤ Europe is projected to experience shrinking population: the populations of 48 European countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease between 2015 and 2050. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around

2.1 children per woman, on average), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades. Fertility for Europe as a whole is projected to increase from 1.6 children per women in 2010-2015 to 1.8 in 2045-2050, but such an increase will not prevent a likely contraction of the total population size.

♤ Most of the increase in world population can be attributed to a short list of countries: At the country level, much of the overall increase between now and 2050 is projected to occur either in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, or in countries with large populations. During 2015-2050, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Indonesia and Uganda, listed according to the size of their contribution to the total growth.

♤ Increasing longevity around the world; progress against major challenges: significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth rose by 3 years between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015 (from 67 to 70 years). All major areas shared in the life expectancy gains over this period, but the greatest increases were in Africa, where life expectancy rose by 6 years in the 2000s after rising by only 2 years in the previous decade.

Under-five mortality, expressed as the probability of dying between birth and a child’s fifth birthday, is an important indicator of development and the well-being of children. Globally, deaths among children under age five fell from 71 per 1,000 live births in 2000-2005 to an estimated 50 per 1,000 in 2010-2015. Absolute declines were particularly large in Sub- Saharan Africa (142 to 99 per 1,000) and in the least developed countries (125 to 86 per 1,000). The reduction of under-five mortality, which has received intense global attention as the target of Millennium Development Goal 4

♤ Populations in many parts of the world are still young; opportunity for demographic dividend: Populations in many regions are still young. In Africa, children under age 15 account for 41 per cent of the population in 2015 and young persons aged 15 to 24 account for a further 19 per cent. Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, which have seen greater declines in fertility, have smaller percentages of children (26 and 24 per cent, respectively) and similar percentages of youth (17 and 16 per cent, respectively). In total, these three regions are home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young persons in 2015

Proportions of children in the populations of many countries of these regions are projected to decline further in the near-term future, while the size and the proportion of populations in the prime working ages can be expected to grow. Countries with a relatively high ratio of working to dependent populations have the possibility of benefitting from a “demographic

dividend,” provided that appropriate labour market and other policies allow for a productive absorption of the growing working-age population and for increased investments in the human capital of children and youth.