1.18. The China Factor

♤ A distinctive pattern of triangular interaction has emerged in relations among China, India, and the United States during the post–Cold War period. China was one significant factor in the emergence of the new Indo–U.S. relationship.

♤ Each actor apprehends alignment of the other two against itself. This fear exists for all three actors but is especially strong for the two weaker state actors, China and India.

♤ China is an emerging challenger to the global influence of the United States. It is also a key neighbour of India. Thus the triangle acquires new salience in the changing geopolitics. All three a member of G-20. India and China cooperate in BRICS and AIIB but diverge on OBOR. India and USA converge on the OBOR.

♤ Pivot to Asia: President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia”, announced in 2011, involved an attempt to rebalance U.S. foreign policy away from the Middle East and toward East Asia.

The Obama administration spent eight years formulating a foreign policy vision, Known as the “rebalance to Asia”. The policy involved coordinated efforts to boost U.S. defense, diplomatic, and economic ties with the Asia-Pacific.

♤ American strategic partnerships have generally expanded in the Asian region, as they did from 2001 to 2008. There is more continuity and bipartisan consensus around Asia policy in the United States.

♤ Flip Flops: In 2009, president Obama emphasized his intention to respect China’s “core interests” in Asia, to the alarm of American allies. Then, in 2011, after an emboldened China began throwing its weight around, the administration announced its “rebalance” to Asia with new military deployments to Australia, to the alarm of China.

♤ Then, in 2013, the Obama administration shook American allies again by walking away from the “red line” on Syria and announcing support for Xi Jinping’s “New Model of Great Power Relations” — a proposed condominium of the United States and China in Asia that looked very much like the earlier pledge to respect China’s core interests.

♤ With President Trump there are both elements of continuity and change e.g. His visit to China in November 2017 and his praise of China in light of his previous criticism of Beijing.