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OKUN’S LAW


Based on the empirical research of Arthur Okun (1928–80), the law describes the relationship between unemployment and growth rate in an economy. As per it, if GDP grows at 3 per cent p.a., the unemployment rate would not change. In the case of faster growth rates, every extra above the 3 per cent will have a decrease in the unemployment rate by its half (i.e., a 4 per cent growth rate will decrease unemployment by 0.5 per cent–half of 1 which is the extra above 3 per cent). Similarly, a growth rate below 3 per cent will have the same but opposite impact on unemployment (i.e., increases it).

Though the law was perfectly correct for the period of the US economy Okun studied, it may not be valid today in either US or anywhere else. But in general, the law is still used by experts and policy makers as a rule of thumb to estimate the relationship between growth rate and job creation.