DEMOGRAPHICS

The population of India has gone for some major changes in the recent decades. These changes have not only restructured the contours of Indian demographics but have brought new openings and challenges regarding it:

1. As per provisional results of Census 2011, the following facts regarding the Indian population dynamics are of high importance. The 2001–11 is the first decade in independent India wherein, the population momentum coupled with declining fertility has dampened the pace of net additions to population. Thus, the net addition in this decade is less than that of the pervious decade by 0.86 million. At present, a little more than one out of every six persons in the world is an Indian.

2. As per Sample Registration System-2013 (SRS) data—

(a) There has been a gradual decline in the share of population in the age group 0-14 from 41.2 to 38.1 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from

36.3 to 28.4 per cent during 1991 to 2013.

(b) On the other hand, the proportion of economically active population (15-59 years) or, India’s ‘demographic dividend’, has increased from

53.4 to 56.3 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from 57.7 to 63.3 per cent during 1991 to 2013.

(c) On account of better education, health facilities, and increase in life expectancy, the per centage of elderly (60+) has gone up from 5.3 to

5.7 per cent and 6.0 to 8.3 per cent respectively in the same two periods.

(d) The growth rate of the labour force will continue to be higher than that of the population until 2021.

3. According to an Indian Labour Report (Time Lease, 2007)—

(a) 300 million youth will enter the labour force by 2025, and 25 per cent of the world’s workers in the next three years will be Indians.

(b) Population projections indicate that in 2020 the average age of India’s population will be the lowest in the world—around 29 years compared to 37 years in China and the United States of America, 45 years in West Europe, and 48 years in Japan.

(c) Consequently, while the global economy is expected to witness a shortage of young population of around 56 million by 2020, India will be the only country with a youth surplus of 47 million (Report on Education, Skill Development and Labour Force (2013–14) Volume III, Labour Bureau, 2014).

As per the Economic Survey 2014–15, the main issue to address then is not just providing employment but increasing the employability of the labour force in India. Employability is contingent upon knowledge and skills developed through quality education and training. Thus, any solution to the problem lies in a well-designed education and training regime that sets out to meet these objectives. The problem of low employability levels owing to poor quality of education is accentuated by the fact that fewer students opt for higher education in country. To garner the ‘demographic dividend’, the Survey suggested the following policy initiatives in this regard:

(i) A declining 0–14 population will impact both elementary (5–14 age group) and higher education (15–29 age group). Elementary education can be further subdivided into primary (5–9 age group) and middle/upper primary (10–14 age group). The first stage of impact will be felt in declining enrolment in primary schools. As stated earlier, total enrolment in primary schools has fallen in 2013-14 while upper primary enrolment has grown. The dependency ratio for India is expected to fall from 54 per cent in 2010 to 49 per cent in 2020. In this scenario, given interstate disparities, states that are already facing this situation need to adopt specific policy measures in the field of education, wherein, instead of expanding the number of primary schools, focus should be on—

(a) Improving access to education considering the high dropout rates among senior students;

(b) Removing gender disparity especially in the higher age group and in rural areas;

(c) Improving quality of education, including pupil-teacher ratios and provision of amenities in schools, especially in view of the declining learning levels.

(ii) The lag in demographic transition between different states that necessitates state-specific policies to optimally garner the benefits of the demographic dividend. Owing to substantial fertility decline in the south during the last two decades, the south is ahead in the demographic transition compared to the north, thereby the window is already wide open in the south compared to the north. For instance, the projected average age of 29 years in 2020 has already been surpassed in some

states like Kerala (33 years), Goa (32.3), Tamil Nadu (31.3), Himachal Pradesh (30.4), Punjab (29.9), Andhra Pradesh (29.3), and West Bengal (29.1). This lag in demographic transition among states in India could turn out to be a great blessing from the point of view of coping with the problem of declining population. India is better placed in this respect than most other countries. Thus, two set of policy initiatives emerge for the states—

(a) The states which are already well into the demographic window should actively pursue policies for employment generation to the already bulging labour force.

(b) The states just entering the window period have some time to plan and must pursue policies simultaneously in several areas like education, health (including reproductive health), gender issues, and employment generation from now on so that they can fully utilise the opportunity.